2010-01-21
Scott Brown's victory in the special election to fill the late
Senator Edward Kennedy's Senate seat means that the Democrats no longer
have the 60-person majority that could block united Republican
opposition to health reform and other Democratic legislation. However,
the Democrats still have a significant majority in both the House and
Senate. The Democratic leadership has said they still plan to pass
health reform and have several options to do it (albeit some much less
realistic than others):
A new bill could be pushed through both chambers before the election
is certified and Brown is seated while the 60-person majority is still
in place. This option is highly unlikely for several reasons. First, it
assumes all Democrats would agree on the legislation, which may be
difficult to achieve. Crafting a new measure quickly would require the
speedy development of a new bill, a timely Congressional Budget Office
fiscal analysis, compliance with a promised 72-hour waiting period
prior to a House vote and an amenable Senate. In addition, at least one
Senator is calling for health-care votes to be suspended until Brown is
seated, and many believe the Democrats pushing a bill through would
meet with enormous public backlash.
The House could pass the Senate bill "as is" and then,
simultaneously, bring up a corrections bill that would incorporate
deals made in House-Senate negotiations over the last week. The
corrections bill could be passed through an expedited process, assuming
Democratic leaders find the votes.
A third scenario would have the Democrats return to square one and
write a new bill that the Republicans would support. This scenario is
extremely unlikely given the extreme partisanship in Congress.
Finally, the Democrats could use the budget reconciliation process
to pass a health reform bill. Reconciliation requires only 51 votes and
does not permit a filibuster. A reconciliation measure, however, is not
completely immune to delays and difficult votes. Provisions in a
reconciliation bill are subject to complex parliamentary procedure,
which can be used to strike provisions that do not directly produce a
change in federal revenues or outlays (for example major provisions in
the current bills, such as health insurance exchanges would have to be
stripped). While Republicans likely could not break a 51-vote majority
in their opposition, they could use several tactics to slow down all
business in the Senate.
Democratic strategists are working it out and expect to have a plan shortly.
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